OPINION

Column: Democrats capitalized on abortion, fair maps and weak opponents

By Jacob Kuiper
Staff Writer

No state encapsulates the failed GOP dreams of a red election like Michigan. Democratic incumbents Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, and Attorney General Dana Nessel were seen as some of the most vulnerable politicians in the country. All three, however, ended up not only surviving, but winning handily – smashing their opponents by 10, 14, and 8 points respectively.

Dems were also able to flip a US House of Representatives seat in the Grand Rapids area and almost won a district in Macomb County, despite losing an incumbent’s seat because of 2020 census reapportionment. They were also able to win back the State House of Representatives and State Senate gaining 3 and 4 seats respectively, earning them “trifecta” (control of all three branches of government) control for the first time in 38 years.

So the question remains: What happened? What caused this year of historical exception?

Arguably the most important implication was abortion. In 2022 the Supreme Court issued a decision in the case Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization that overturned the previous decisions in cases Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey, giving full power to the states to regulate abortion as they wish. This decision effectively eliminated access to abortion in many states and sharply restricted it in others.

Michigan was one of those states thrust onto the abortion stage. A 1931 law criminalizing abortion and state government in control of anti-abortion Republicans suddenly left Whitmer the only line of defense for abortion rights, scrambling partisans on both sides. The appearance of Proposition 3 on the ballot, a proposed amendment to explicitly add abortion and contraception rights into the Michigan constitution, also added uncertainty to the mix.

Polling backs up this thought. A CNN poll of Michigan voters in 2022 found that 63% thought that abortion should be legal with 45%, a plurality, rating abortion their top issue. 56% said they were “dissatisfied/angry” about Roe v. Wade being overturned.

Fair redistricting also played a role. 2022 marked the first year US House, MI State House and State Senate districts would not be drawn by politicians but by an independent, bipartisan commission. Despite winning the popular vote for State Senate in 2018 and State House in 2012, ‘14, ‘18, and ‘20, Democrats held the majority in none of those years. This was because after Republicans took control of state government in 2010 they gerrymandered (drew district maps to benefit themselves) Michigan to make it almost impossible for Democrats to win. This was held up when in 2019 a federal judge panel found that redistricting in 2011 under Republicans was so partisan that it constituted an illegal gerrymander. Today’s maps get an A (State Senate/Congressional) or B (State House) rating from the Princeton Gerrymandering Project when ranked on measures of partisan fairness, competitiveness, and geographic features (compactness/county splitting).

The nail in the coffin for Republicans in Michigan, and the country at large, was a candidate quality problem. GOP nominee for Governor Tudor Dixon was relentlessly attacked on the campaign trail for her infamous opposition to abortion without exception for rape or incest. The CNN poll also found that only 38% of voters thought that Whitmer’s views were too extreme while 56% thought that Dixon’s were. 57% trusted Whitmer to handle Michigan’s election while only 39% trusted Dixon. The GOPs other statewide candidates, Secretary of State nominee Kristina Karamo and Attorney General nominee Matthew DePerno had similar electability issues. Both election deniers, Karamo had claimed that Trump had won in 2020 and that she had witnessed fraud as a poll challenger. DePerno led a failed lawsuit challenging the 2020 election results in Antrim County even after a state Republican-led investigation concluded that there was “no evidence of widespread or systematic fraud.”

2022 was supposed to be like any other “wave” election year, but abortion, redistricting, and flawed candidates led to meager results. Despite some success, no other state showed the depth of the GOP’s failures like Michigan. Michigan was Democrats’ blue shining jewel in a sea of purple.